Kenya has a date with her destiny on Thursday this week. As ordered by the Supreme Court, a repeat presidential election will take place. Despite having his prayers challenging President Uhuru's victory granted, Raila Odinga strangely decided to pull out of the contest.
During Mashujaa Day celebration, Odinga held parallel rallies in his fiefdom of Bondo and Kisumu where he informed his followers that he would make a major announcement a day before the election.
What could be the magic card hidden under the table by the opposition leader? Here are the possibilities:
1. Unbeknown to Kenyans, Raila could have secretly compelled IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati to resign before 25/10/2017, to have his 'No reforms, no election' orgasm fulfilled.
[However, for Chebukati, he would have committed grievous treasonous sins and he could be arrested and charged in Court. With a no contest on that day, Uhuru should be sworn in by the people the same day]
2. As he did after the declaration of Uhuru's win when he cheated that he wouldn't go to the Supreme Court, but dashed there at the last minute, Raila could at the eve of the election ask his followers to come out in large numbers and vote; taking his opponents by surprise. He did not formally pull out by filling form 24A.
[In this case, he would however, have misled his zombie followers as many are yet to travel to their voting zones]
3. With his call for a mother of all demonstrations, Raila could be hallucinating on violent take over of power, aping what took place during the Orange Revolution of Ukraine and the Iranian revolution of the 1970s. He might be planning to have massive demonstrations with clear instructions to match to every polling station and even State House.
[On this scenario, he would lead his people to the guillotine without success, and possibly be arrested and prosecuted for the massacre and bloodshed that would ensue]
4. The least option he can do on that day is to tell his people to remain indoors during the poll day and ask them not to prevent others from voting.
[Voting would continue without his participation; results declared and it will be the beginning of his political end. Once the president is sworn in, Raila will be dealt with like any other criminal if he will attempt to instigate any violence]
In all the available options, Raila Odinga could be in a serious political quagmire and his public bravado might be a thin veil that is masking deeply rooted regrets on the wrong turn he made by pulling out of the election. There is also international pressure against his evil antics. Cornered, outwitted, outgunned and unable to win any election, he is finished.
However, the government should not take chances. There should never be a loophole for him to exploit. Security machinery should remain on high alert. Every polling station should be a no go zone for any rowdy group except voters.
Most importantly, the just passed electoral amendments should be signed into laws immediately.